Neil Finn

Can it be true that when Paul McCartney was once asked what it felt like to be the world's greatest living songwriter, he replied "I'm not, Neil Finn is" or words to that effect? Fact or fiction, there is no denying that Neil is one of the very best songwriters of his generation. I have followed his career on and off since I first heard "I Got You" an early Split Enz recording from 1980 which received a lot of radio airplay in the UK and was an international hit.

Since then, there has been Crowded House, some solo albums, The Finn Brothers and now Crowded House again. Notwithstanding Neil's re-invention with a very dodgy moustache, the latest Crowded House album "Intriguer"contains some gems. There may be nothing to rival "Don't Dream It's Over" or "Weather With You" but there are not many of his contemporaries writing songs as strong as "Amsterdam" or "Falling Dove." For anyone in any doubt about Neil's enormous contribution to popular music, here are a few reminders. The first is the aforementioned classic "Don't Dream It's Over", followed by the lesser known "Won't Give In", an excellent inspirational song dealing with Neil's family problems which was recorded with his brother Tim.

Americano?

We must indeed be leading a sheltered life in Singapore. We have just spent a couple of weeks in Melbourne and surrounds enjoying the colder weather, a change in pace and a selection of nightlife. Within the space of of a few hundred yards, we enjoyed the full throttle rock bands of The Esplanade in St. Kilda and the ambience of a kitsch piano bar where we left the proprietor punching the air as his keyboard man performed The Four Seasons' December '63 (Oh What A Night). Elsewhere, on the car radio, on the TV and booming out of shop fronts was...We No Speak Americano.!

It was only when we got back to Singapore that I realized the "creators" of this very catchy tune are a couple of Aussies known as Yolando Be Cool. Now a worldwide No.1 including the U.K., I was wondering why it was so familiar. Of course, it is a heavily sampled version of an old 1950's Italian song by Renato Carosone. I first encountered this song in one of my favourite movies directed by the late Anthony Minghella, "The Talented Mr. Ripley" where Jude Law and Matt Damon performed "Tu Vuo' Fa L'Americano" in a memorable scene in an Italian jazz club. Whilst I am sure there are many Italian jazz purists unimpressed by this new version becoming a worldwide hit, I think there will also be lots of listeners feeling compelled to investigate the origins of the song and open up new horizons. Isn't it just great that an old Italian jazz song is now so familar all over the world thanks to a young Australian duo? Even if it does become irritating after a while....

Me vs Paul the Octopus

So..it has come to this. The World Cup Final is just hours away and here I am pitting my wits against an octopus. You may recall my suggestion in an earlier post of the possibility of Dutch success, based on nothing more than the following of a colour pattern. It's hardly clairvoyance but no more ridiculous than the idea that a two year old octopus could successfully predict results of important football matches....Except that it seems his track record is quite good; in fact, it is extraordinary.

Paul, who lives in a tank at a Sea Life Centre in Oberhausen, Germany is presented with two boxes containing food, each marked with the flag of a national football team in an upcoming match. Apparently, he chose the box with the flag of the winning team in several of Germany's six Euro 2008 matches, and in all seven of their matches in the 2010 World Cup including Germany's third place playoff win over Uruguay yesterday. He even predicted correctly that Germany would lose to Serbia in the qualifying round.

With a 100% success rate in the World Cup to date, Paul has now dipped into the box with the Spanish flag on it. I should be concerned but I'm sticking with the Dutch. Whatever happens, the World Cup will have a new name on it. The Spanish have never progressed further than the quarter finals and the Dutch, although reaching the final in 1974 and 1978, lost each time.

Which brings me to the real reason for this post. In those 1978 finals, apart from Argentina who defeated Holland 3-1 in the final, only one team managed to beat the Dutch. The decisive goal by Scotland's Archie Gemmill in a memorable 3-2 victory was one of the classic all time World Cup goals. Sadly, it was not quite enough to keep Scotland in the tournament. Archie can, however, be proud that it is the only known piece of World Cup action to form the backdrop to a sex scene in a major hit movie. You can see the goal below. In yet another You Tube video, Archie can be seen talking about his embarrassment the first time he saw that scene in "Trainspotting"!

England Get The Bird

Have a look at this picture. This South African pigeon, already recognizing that he would need to put up with a lot of noise at the Green Point Stadium in Cape Town, decided to at least perch somewhere he would not be disturbed. His chosen place at the top of the net of the Algerian goal during their World Cup match against England would appear to have been carefully calculated if it is true that, as suggested by Henry Winter of the Daily Telegraph, the canny bird actually changed sides at half time. Certainly, Mr. Pigeon's choice of venue ensured no ruffled feathers from a flying Jabulani. He would have been in more danger in the stands. Bookmakers should take note of the predictive powers of the South African pigeon.

By contrast, the England manager, Fabio Capello celebrating his 64th birthday on Friday, looked to be a man under considerable pressure. Before the match, the media enjoyed referencing the Beatles song "When I'm Sixty Four" inviting readers to suggest appropriate lyrics for the occasion. That moment has now passed. For the sake of Fabio's health, the nation will be holding it's collective breath hoping that another track from Sgt. Pepper will be invoked on Wednesday afternoon in Port Elizabeth. "Getting Better"....

Poor Britannia?

So, how bad are things in the U.K. really? Hot on the heels of the new coalition government's proclamation that things were much worse than expected, comes the inconvenient conclusion of the newly formed Office of Budget Responsibility that, actually, it's er..not THAT bad! Whilst the politicians argue about the details, a surprisingly upbeat set of results from Majestic Wines this week would suggest that there is, at the very least, some cheer left in the economy.

Majestic posted a pre-tax profit of £16m for the year to March 2010, a very impressive increase of 117% over the previous year. Interestingly, sales of fine wine (classified as £20 per bottle and above) rose by the largest measure - over 22% and online sales rose by almost 20%. For a nation barely out of recession, these are amazing statistics.

It's not new, of course, to suggest that the wine and spirit trade is immune to economic factors and perhaps in this case, the steep increase in consumption is directly related to the depth of the downturn. Has Majestic just had much greater nous than their competitors over this period or is this performance telling us that there is surprisingly resilient spending power left in the economy? Or is everyone broke but determined not to let a little financial difficulty get in the way of a respectable Pinot Noir? Above all, in credit crunch Britain, it would be interesting to know, apart from the 20% online transactions, how much of the £200m+ in store sales was accommodated with a little help from a "flexible friend".....

Tangerine Dreams

What is the most unexpected event of the past couple of weeks? The coalition government formed between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats following the UK election, perhaps? Jose Mourinho completing an unprecedented treble with Inter Milan? Sarah Feguson's willingness to accept a few bob for access to her ex-husband's address book? No, I would suggest the biggest surprise of all has been the severe outbreak of tangerine in Glasgow and London. Last week, Dundee United won the Scottish Cup for only the 2nd time in over 100 years. Yesterday, at an unexpectedly steamy Wembley Stadium, Blackpool won promotion to the English Premiership after almost 40 years in exile from the top division.

These are both magnificent achievements but the most extraordinary story is that of Blackpool. He may previously have been regarded as a bit of a clown, but the manager, Ian Holloway, deserved his day in the sun yesterday at Wembley having taken Blackpool from being relegation favourites to winning promotion in a single season. The adjustment for the Seasiders will be truly transformational. This is a club which only recently smashed it's club transfer record with a £500,000 signing and where first team players are responsible for washing their own kits. With their new found riches, it remains to be seen how many of the current patchwork quilt squad of journeymen players will survive to play in the Premiership, but for the moment, they should enjoy their success.

Is this an omen? If you enjoy a flutter, you may consider a wager on the Dutch winning the World Cup.

Black Swan

Attending an in-house conference a couple of months ago, I asked one of my new colleagues from another department where he worked. I'm a "quant" he replied. I was about to offer some comfort and suggest that perhaps he was just having a bad day when I realized he was one of those PHD-wielding gents charged with calculating how much banks could expect to lose when things get a bit rough. Banks may have paid these guys a lot of money in the golden years but, as we all now know,the idea that markets could police themselves effectively proved to be a pretty expensive mistake.

A long-term critic of such risk modelling, Nassim Nicholas Taleb in "The Black Swan" highlighted the vulnerability of these assumptions in the event of high-impact, hard-to-predict and rare events.

Thom Yorke's "Black Swan" was released in 2006 and has nothing to do with the financial crisis that was to come. But the lyric certainly fits the way things turned out...